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The Dual Mandate of Decarbonisation and Development in Africa

Wednesday, 12 November 2025 05:46

Summary

The global push for a Just Energy Transition presents Africa with a profound, two-pronged challenge: mitigating the devastating effects of climate change while simultaneously addressing a crippling energy poverty crisis that affects hundreds of millions of citizens. For nations like South Africa, the transition requires dismantling a deeply entrenched, coal-dependent economy that provides livelihoods for over a hundred thousand people, a process supported by multi-billion dollar international partnerships that nonetheless fall far short of the required investment. Across the continent, the definition of 'just' is not merely about phasing out fossil fuels, but fundamentally about achieving universal energy access and building climate resilience against impacts to which Africa has contributed minimally. Furthermore, the continent's vast reserves of critical 'green' minerals introduce a new geopolitical tension, offering an unprecedented opportunity for industrialisation if African nations can successfully move beyond exporting raw materials to controlling the entire value chain.

The Weight of the Coal Economy in South Africa

The Republic of South Africa stands as the most complex case study for the continent’s energy transition, primarily due to its profound reliance on coal for power generation and economic stability1. The country’s energy landscape is overwhelmingly dominated by coal, which accounts for approximately 73 per cent of the national energy supply2. This dependency is not merely a technical matter of generation capacity; it is a deeply embedded socio-economic structure3. The coal value chain, encompassing mining, power generation, and petrochemicals, provides employment for over 120,000 workers2. The coal mining sector alone employed around 80,000 workers in 2020, representing a significant portion of the country’s formal employment, estimated at between 0.5 per cent and 1.5 per cent of the total2,4.

This industrial concentration is highly localised, with the Mpumalanga province serving as the epicentre of the coal economy2,5. Most of the country’s coal mines, the state-owned utility Eskom’s power stations, and the coal-to-liquids plants operated by Sasol are situated within this single region2,5. The livelihoods of tens of thousands of households are directly tied to this industry, with a significant number of these families being solely reliant on coal income5,6. The average coal worker often enjoys better benefits, such as retirement funds and union representation, compared to the median for other formal workers, making the prospect of job loss particularly destabilising for communities2.

The challenge for Pretoria is therefore not simply a matter of switching off power plants, but of managing a transition that avoids creating a new wave of mass unemployment and social dislocation in an already unequal society7. The Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET IP) explicitly aims to protect vulnerable workers and communities, enhance energy security, and drive economic diversification8. However, the sheer scale of the required transformation, which involves decommissioning and repurposing coal-fired power stations, necessitates a level of social planning and financial commitment that remains unprecedented9.

Defining Justice in the African Context

The global concept of a 'Just Energy Transition' originated in the labour movement of the 1980s, focusing on securing workers’ rights and compensating communities affected by the shift away from extractive industries10. For Africa, however, the definition of 'just' is fundamentally different and far broader than merely managing the decline of fossil fuel jobs11. African leaders and policymakers argue that a just transition must be defined by local visions and must not impose undue costs on a continent that has contributed minimally to the climate crisis12,13. Africa is responsible for less than 4 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet it is disproportionately vulnerable to the impacts of climate change14,15.

The core of the African mandate is the urgent need to address energy poverty16. Approximately 600 million people across the continent lack access to electricity, a deficit that severely hampers economic growth, health outcomes, and educational opportunities13,16,17. In this context, a transition is only considered 'just' if it is affordable, available, and reliable enough to meet the demands of end-users, ensuring that no one is left behind12. The transition must therefore be a dual process: decarbonisation in the long term, coupled with immediate, rapid electrification for development18. This dual imperative often leads to a strategic integration of both fossil fuels and renewables in national energy plans, a position that frequently clashes with the decarbonisation-first agenda of many developed nations13. The reliance on traditional biomass for cooking and heating by a significant portion of the population, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, further complicates the picture, leading to severe health and environmental challenges that modern energy access could alleviate17.

The Continental Energy Access Crisis

The energy deficit across Africa is not uniform, but it is pervasive, creating a stark divide that defines the continent’s development challenge19. While countries like South Africa have high rates of electricity access, the majority of sub-Saharan Africa struggles with profound energy poverty13. The lack of access is most acute in rural areas, where the cost and logistical difficulty of extending the central electricity grid are often prohibitive19,20. In some high-impact countries, rural electrification rates have been as low as 4 to 5 per cent21.

However, the challenge is not confined to the countryside22. Even in urban centres, where electrification rates are generally higher, over 100 million people in sub-Saharan African cities lacked an electricity connection as of 2017, often due to prohibitively high connection costs22. Furthermore, a significant portion of urban dwellers live in slum-like conditions, where connections may be illegal, unreliable, or insufficient, characterised by frequent power outages and voltage fluctuations22,23. The issue transcends a simple lack of infrastructure; it is a complex problem of affordability, reliability, and quality of supply22. The reliance on off-grid solutions, such as solar photovoltaic systems, has shown promise in hard-to-reach rural settings, but market-based approaches often fail to reach the poorest households due to high initial costs20. The lack of reliable power also extends to critical public services, with nearly half of hospitals and health centres in sub-Saharan Africa lacking reliable electricity, which compromises the storage of medicines and the operation of essential medical equipment19.

The Promise and Peril of International Finance

The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) with South Africa, announced in 2021, was heralded as a landmark climate financing deal7,24. The International Partners Group (IPG), comprising the European Union, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States, initially pledged US$8.5 billion to support the country’s transition7,25. This commitment later grew to US$12.5 billion with the addition of new donors9,26. The funding is intended to be 'catalytic,' leveraging a much greater level of resources from both private and public sources to meet the country’s total estimated investment need of US$98 billion (R1.5 trillion) over the initial five-year period from 2023 to 20279,27,28.

Despite the headline figures, the structure of the financing has drawn significant criticism29. The US$8.5 billion initial offer was composed primarily of concessional loans, guarantees, and blended finance, rather than outright grants25,29. This prioritisation of blended finance and public-private partnerships commits the South African state to ‘de-risking’ private investment, often by providing sovereign guarantees for the debt29. Critics argue that this approach is expensive, as the state assumes the majority of the commercial risk, and that a private financing model is likely to deepen energy poverty by locking the state into high tariffs, irrespective of the falling costs of renewable energy production29. The reliance on debt financing risks increasing the country’s debt burden, a significant challenge for a developing economy30.

Furthermore, the JETP model, which has since been extended to other nations like Senegal and Vietnam, has been criticised for its supply-side focus31. A substantial proportion of the funds are directed towards large-scale infrastructure projects, such as renewable energy development and green hydrogen, with less emphasis on demand-side considerations like ensuring equitable access for low-income communities31,32. The social dimension, which is central to the ‘just’ mandate, has not received the same level of attention as the technical and economic aspects, raising concerns that the transition may fail to deliver equitable outcomes for all citizens30,31.

The Geopolitics of Green Minerals

The global energy transition has inadvertently created a new geopolitical dynamic for Africa through the soaring demand for critical ‘green’ minerals33. The continent holds an estimated 30 per cent of the world’s mineral reserves, including vast deposits of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite, all essential components for batteries, electric vehicles, and renewable energy technologies34,35. The International Energy Agency predicts that demand for these key inputs will increase significantly by 2040, positioning Africa at a pivotal moment to shape its economic future34,36.

This mineral wealth presents an unprecedented opportunity for African nations to leverage global demand for their own developmental agenda37. However, it also carries the significant risk of perpetuating the historical ‘resource curse,’ where African countries remain mere exporters of raw materials while others profit from the higher-value stages of the supply chain34,38. The current geopolitical competition for access to these minerals is intensifying, with global powers negotiating bilateral agreements that are often opaque39,40.

To counter this, African governments are increasingly pushing for ‘beneficiation’—the domestic processing and manufacturing of minerals to add local value34,37. Countries such as Zimbabwe, Tanzania, and Namibia have imposed measures, including export restrictions, to promote domestic value addition37. Furthermore, regional cooperation is emerging, exemplified by the partnership between Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo to produce battery precursors37. The success of this strategy hinges on African states strengthening their bargaining position through greater intra-African coordination and implementing comprehensive governance frameworks, such as the African Green Minerals Strategy, to ensure that the mineral boom translates into sustainable growth and social equity37,38.

Conclusion

The energy transition in Africa is a crucible where the global climate imperative meets the continent’s urgent development needs. The challenge is not simply to decarbonise, but to industrialise and electrify simultaneously, a task that requires a fundamental re-evaluation of global climate finance16,41. The current adaptation costs for sub-Saharan Africa are estimated to be between US$30 billion and US$50 billion annually over the next decade, yet the continent receives only a fraction of the necessary global climate finance14,42. The financial mechanisms currently in place, such as the South African JETP, rely heavily on debt and blended finance, which risks exacerbating economic vulnerabilities and failing to address the social equity component of the transition29,30. The path forward demands a shift from a model of conditional aid to one of genuine partnership, recognising that Africa’s climate resilience is a precondition for sustained global economic progress15. The continent’s vast renewable energy potential and its critical mineral reserves offer a clear route to a green industrial future, but this potential can only be realised if African nations are empowered to control the value chains and define the terms of their own development, ensuring that the transition is truly just, equitable, and sovereign12,37.

References

  1. Coal-dependent South Africa struggles to make just energy transition real

    Used as a foundational source to establish South Africa's coal dependency as the central challenge of the JET.

  2. South Africa Sector Jobs Resilience Plans – Policies - IEA

    Provides specific statistics on South Africa's coal dependency (73% of energy supply) and employment figures (over 120,000 workers in the value chain, 80,000 in mining, and 1.5% of formal employment).

  3. The importance of coal - Statistics South Africa

    Used to support the statement that coal dependency is a deeply embedded socio-economic structure.

  4. Just Transition and the Labour Market in South Africa - Oxford Martin School

    Provides the 2019 employment estimate for the coal mining industry (76,000 to 108,000 workers) and the 0.5% of total employment figure.

  5. The Just Energy Transition and the labour market in South Africa - Polity.org.za

    Details the concentration of coal jobs in Mpumalanga and the number of households solely reliant on coal income.

  6. Just Transition and the Labour Market in South Africa - UCT Commerce - University of Cape Town

    Used to support the figure of approximately 106,887 direct and indirect jobs linked to the coal value chain in Mpumalanga.

  7. Just Energy Transition | Driving South Africa's Low-Carbon Future

    Confirms the launch of the JET in 2021, the initial US$8.5 billion IPG commitment, and the JET IP's objectives to protect vulnerable workers and enhance energy security.

  8. South Africa Just Energy Transition Investment Plan - European Commission

    Confirms the JET IP's aim to ensure that those most directly affected by a transition from coal are not left behind.

  9. Two years into South Africa's Just Energy Transition Partnership: How real is the deal?

    Provides the total JET Investment Plan figure of US$98 billion and the updated financial commitment of US$12.5 billion.

  10. Defining Just Transitions in the Africa Context - Energy for Growth Hub

    Explains the origin of the 'Just Transition' concept in the global trade union movement of the 1980s.

  11. What Is a “Just Climate Transition” for Africa? - Network for Business Sustainability (NBS)

    Supports the argument that the African definition of 'just' must be defined by local visions and principles.

  12. A Just Energy Transition for Africa: By Africans, For Africans - Renewables In Africa

    Cites the UNDP African Regional Director's definition of a 'just' transition as affordable and available, and mentions the importance of African ownership.

  13. What does the just energy transition mean for Africa? - Mongabay

    Provides the figure of 600 million Africans lacking electricity access, Africa's low contribution to global emissions, and the dual challenge of decarbonisation and development.

  14. wmo.int

    Provides the WMO estimate for sub-Saharan Africa's adaptation costs (US$30-50 billion annually) and the loss of GDP (2-5 per cent).

  15. COP30 in Belém must join Africa in securing the future for humanity - African Business

    States Africa's contribution of less than 4% to global emissions and the cost of climate change to Africa (up to 5% of GDP annually).

  16. Just Transition and Energy Access - PACJA - Panafrican Climate Justice Alliance

    Emphasises that a just transition in Africa means prioritising access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all.

  17. Just Energy Transition: Challenges and Low-Carbon Pathways for Africa - ReSAKSS

    Confirms the figure of over 600 million people lacking electricity access and the heavy reliance on traditional biomass for cooking and heating.

  18. African summit seeks clean energy future to combat climate change impacts

    Used to support the idea of a dual process: decarbonisation and immediate electrification for development.

  19. Energy Access in Africa: Promotion of Rural Businesses Effective, but Energy-Poor Population Groups Neglected - DEval.org

    Provides the statistic that 43 per cent of all Africans have no access to electricity and the figure for hospitals/health centres lacking reliable electricity.

  20. Impacts of energy access: Differences between Rural and Urban Energy Access - energypedia

    Explains the challenge of grid extension in rural areas and the high initial costs of off-grid solutions for the poorest.

  21. Electrification: Urban/Rural Divide | Sustainable Energy for All

    Provides the statistic on low rural electrification rates (4-5 per cent) in high-impact countries.

  22. Closing Sub-Saharan Africa's Electricity Access Gap: Why Cities Must Be Part of the Solution | World Resources Institute

    Details the urban access challenge, including the 100 million urban Africans lacking connection due to high costs and the issues of unreliable supply.

  23. Access to electricity, urban (% of urban population) - Sub-Saharan Africa | Data

    Used to support the general statement about higher urban electrification rates.

  24. SOUTH AFRICA'S JUST ENERGY TRANSITION INVESTMENT PLAN (JET IP) - MLGP4Climate

    Confirms the initial US$8.5 billion IPG pledge and its purpose as catalytic financing.

  25. Just Energy Transition Partnership South Africa funding details

    Confirms the IPG members (EU, France, Germany, UK, US) and the initial US$8.5 billion commitment.

  26. Challenges and Opportunities for Just Energy Transition Partnerships in Africa

    Confirms the IPG members and the increase in financial commitments.

  27. Challenges and Opportunities for Just Energy Transition Partnerships in Africa - Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik

    Provides the US$98 billion investment need over five years (2023–2027).

  28. South Africa Just Energy Transition Investment Plan - European Commission (2022-11-06)

    Confirms the R1.5 trillion (US$98 billion) financial requirement over five years.

  29. TOWARDS A JUST ENERGY TRANSITION - Institute For Economic Justice

    Details the critique of the JETP financing structure, including the mix of concessional loans/blended finance, the state's role in 'de-risking' private investment, and the risk of deepening energy poverty through high tariffs.

  30. Challenges and Opportunities for Just Energy Transition Partnerships in Africa (2024-12-03)

    Highlights the challenges of increasing debt burdens and the critical gap in addressing the social dimension of the JETP.

  31. Challenges and Opportunities for Just Energy Transition Partnerships in Africa - Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (2024-03-16)

    Criticises the JETP model for being supply-side-led, focusing on infrastructure (green hydrogen, EVs) with less emphasis on equitable access for all citizens.

  32. Challenges and Opportunities for Just Energy Transition Partnerships in Africa (2024-12-03)

    Used to support the point that a large proportion of JETP funds are directed towards infrastructure projects.

  33. The Geopolitics of Energy Minerals: How Africa Can Lead the Green Energy Transition

    Establishes the link between the global energy transition and the new geopolitical dynamic for Africa through critical minerals.

  34. Africa Eyes Critical Minerals Boom, But Can It Turn Resources into Real Wealth?

    Provides the figure of 30% of the world's mineral reserves in Africa (lithium, cobalt, nickel) and the IEA prediction of increased demand.

  35. The geopolitics of green minerals - European Central Bank

    Lists the key minerals (lithium, copper, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and graphite) essential for the green transition.

  36. POLICY BRIEF - African Green Minerals Observatory

    Supports the statement that demand for critical minerals will likely increase significantly.

  37. The Geopolitics of Energy Minerals: How Africa Can Lead the Green Energy Transition (2024-07-15)

    Details the push for 'beneficiation,' the imposition of export restrictions by countries like Zimbabwe, Tanzania, and Namibia, and the Zambia/DRC partnership.

  38. Africa Eyes Critical Minerals Boom, But Can It Turn Resources into Real Wealth? (2025-11-05)

    Discusses the risk of remaining a raw material supplier and the need for the African Green Minerals Strategy.

  39. Mapping Africa's Green Mineral Partnerships - APRI - Africa Policy Research Institute

    Describes the intensifying geopolitical competition and the opaque nature of bilateral agreements for critical minerals.

  40. Challenges and Opportunities for Just Energy Transition Partnerships in Africa (2024-12-03)

    Used to support the statement that the JETP model has been extended to Senegal and Vietnam.

  41. What does the just energy transition mean for Africa? - Mongabay (2025-11-10)

    Used to reinforce the idea that the challenge is to industrialise and electrify simultaneously.

  42. Financing Climate Adaptation in Africa - Observer Research Foundation

    Provides the statistic that Africa receives only about 3 per cent of global climate finance.